The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway approximately 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It sits between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south. Under normal conditions approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil and 20 percent of its liquefied natural gas moves through the strait every day — making it the single most important energy chokepoint on the planet.
Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, Iran has effectively closed the strait to most commercial shipping. The closure is the largest oil supply disruption in history, surpassing previous disruptions including the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian revolution. Every country that imports oil or petroleum products from the Persian Gulf has been affected — which means effectively every economy on earth.
What It Has Done to Gas Prices
Oil prices rose more than 40 percent in the first weeks after the war began, with Brent crude — the global benchmark — reaching $112 per barrel before retreating to approximately $103. The national average price of gasoline in the United States reached $4.45 per gallon by early May — a four-year high. Diesel fuel, which powers the trucks that move goods across the country, has risen proportionally.
The five to six week lag between crude oil price increases and gasoline price increases at the pump means Americans are still absorbing price increases from oil market moves that happened weeks ago. According to research from Brown University, American consumers are facing a $37 billion hit from the spike in gasoline and diesel prices since the war began.
What It Has Done to Airline Prices
Jet fuel is refined from crude oil and is one of airlines’ largest operating costs — typically accounting for 20 to 30 percent of total expenses. Jet fuel prices rose more than 80 percent from the start of the war through early May, according to Al Jazeera’s reporting on aviation industry data. Airlines have responded by raising fares, adding fuel surcharges, increasing baggage fees, and cutting routes.
Domestic airfares are up 24 percent year-on-year. International fares are up 16 percent on average. Airlines have cut 9.3 million seats from summer schedules. Spirit Airlines permanently ceased operations. Alaska Airlines said rising fuel prices will add $600 million in costs between April and June alone. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby wrote that if fuel prices stayed at current levels it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense for jet fuel.
What It Has Done to Grocery and Consumer Prices
Diesel fuel powers the trucks that deliver food and goods to stores. When diesel prices rise the cost of transporting every product in the American supply chain rises with it. The effect works through the economy gradually — not as a single price spike but as a compounding increase across thousands of products over weeks and months.
Fertilizer prices have also risen sharply because natural gas — also affected by the Hormuz closure — is a primary input in fertilizer production. Higher fertilizer costs feed through to higher food production costs and eventually to higher grocery prices. Economists from multiple institutions have flagged food and consumer goods inflation as a coming consequence of the prolonged Hormuz closure that has not yet fully reached American grocery stores.
When Will Prices Come Back Down
The honest answer from energy economists and aviation analysts is: not soon and possibly not fully. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen today — which has not happened — it would take weeks to months for the oil market to stabilize, for refined petroleum products to work through the supply chain, and for airline prices to reflect lower fuel costs.
Travel industry analysts have noted that some costs — particularly baggage fees — historically have never returned to pre-increase levels once raised. The closure has also caused structural damage to energy supply chains in Europe and Asia that will affect global prices for months regardless of when the strait reopens. The Congressional Research Service, in a report published May 13, noted that U.S. officials are weighing the compounding global economic impact of the strait’s prolonged closure as a factor in negotiating strategy.